Thursday, April 04, 2013

North Korean Troop Movements Less Significant than Chinese Troop Movements


Our generals are unwise to assume that they can predict a North Korean attack based on troop movements within North Korea. As in the last Korean war, it is the Chinese who pose the greatest danger to South Korea, and we have nowhere near the troops needed to repel a Chinese attack on the Korean Peninsula, or on Japan, which is what is coming next.

The North Koreans may well be positioning their troops to provide a rear guard to a Chinese attack and to prevent a US and allied invasion of the North to take out the North's military facilities. In fact, given that China will do most of the fighting against the South, the North is wise to maintain its troops across the nation to safeguard itself from air attacks, commando and other forces. China has the mass to repel the South from charging the North, and the North would gain nothing from charging the South. Instead the North would rather use artillery and missiles to bombard the South, while doing what it can to secure the North. Bear in mind the North will require troops to control and maintain the civilian population across the nation once war breaks out.

The South will then attempt to charge the North. China will announce that its treaties with the North oblige it to defend North Korea, and will roll over the South and then advance on Japan.

If our generals believe what they are telling the press, we are in trouble. It is the Chinese who are driving this move to war, and it is the Chinese troop movements we have watch and defend against. At some point South Korea has to announce that the Chinese troop movements are an act of war. That point is now.